NBA / Rankings / Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley III

RANK #1732025-26 RESULTS · PTS LEAGUEF622025-26 9-CAT #182 8-CAT #194F · Denver NuggetsAge 276' 10"2025-26 season

10.5

Points / game

6.1

Rebounds

1.4

Assists

20.0

Minutes

61.8%

FG%

22.5

FPTS / game

-9.4

vs F median

TIER 6 · #173 OVERALLDepth piece — #62 among forwards

Marvin Bagley III is ranked #62 among 149 eligible NBA forwards. He profiles as a bench or matchup-based option — draft late or stream when the schedule lines up. He closed the season hot — 6.8 points per game above his average over the final five games, driven by a bigger role: 21.6 minutes/game vs 20.1 season-long. Volume gains tend to stick.

Percentile59%

2025-26 season results · Computed from official box scores · Points scoring: PTS + 1.2×REB + 1.5×AST + 3×STL + 3×BLK − TO · updated July 27

VALUE PICK

Marvin Bagley III 2026-27 fantasy outlook

22.9Proj FPTS/G · ~1534 / 67 games

15.1–29.2Typical game · middle 50%

#174Projected rank

140ADP (ESPN drafts)

We rank him #174 versus an ADP of 140 — the market drafts him 151 spots later than we rank him. Strong value if he's still there. Projection drivers: growing workload (21.6 minutes/gm late vs 20.1 season), late-season gains in per-minute production.

INJURY RISK Medium^?AGE/WORKLOAD RISK Low^?ROLE SECURITY Unsettled^?How we grade risk

Projection updated July 27 · ESPN ADP updated July 27 · Range = 25th–75th percentile of his 2025-26 game log

Marvin Bagley III consistency and floor

60 GAMES

10.4

Floor (p10)

22.5

Average

35.9

Ceiling (p90)

Consistency75%+ of average delivered68%

Boom rate125%+ of average27%

Bust rateunder half of average13%

22.4

Season avg FPTS

23.7

Last 10 FPTS

29.3

Last 5 FPTS

Bagley vs other forwards

PERCENTILE · 149 RANKED

Points10.560

Rebounds6.185

Assists1.443

Steals0.531

Blocks0.784

Minutes20.042

Fantasy PPG22.560

Percentile among all ranked NBA forwards · 99 = best

Bagley fantasy points, last 15 games

2025-26 · ■ BOOM · ■ BUST

SEASON HIGH 48.4SEASON LOW 2.2LAST 5 AVG 29.3

Marvin Bagley III game log — 2025-26

■ BOOM · ■ BUST

DATE	OPP	RESULT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FPTS
Apr 11	@SA	L 139-120	8	2	1	1	0	0	0	1-4	0-2	4.7
Apr 9	@PHX	L 112-107	26	20	8	2	0	1	2	8-11	3-6	33.6
Apr 8	@LAC	L 116-103	26	21	9	1	1	2	0	8-11	1-1	42.3
Apr 5	LAL	W 134-128	21	9	4	0	1	1	0	4-7	1-1	19.8
Mar 28	@POR	W 100-93	27	26	9	3	1	1	1	11-14	3-5	46.3
Mar 26	@DEN	L 142-135	17	7	3	3	0	0	0	3-8	0-2	15.1
Mar 24	GS	L 137-131 OT	15	9	0	3	0	0	1	3-4	1-2	12.5
Mar 22	LAC	L 138-131 OT	25	17	7	1	0	0	2	7-8	2-2	24.9
Mar 19	ATL	L 135-120	16	2	7	0	1	0	0	1-2	0-0	13.4
Mar 17	@NO	L 129-111	19	9	9	1	1	0	0	4-7	1-1	24.3
Mar 15	@CLE	W 130-120	16	6	5	0	0	1	2	2-4	1-2	13
Mar 13	CLE	L 138-105	27	4	4	0	0	1	2	2-5	0-1	9.8
Mar 13	@MEM	W 120-112	19	6	9	0	0	2	0	3-5	0-1	22.8
Mar 10	@ATL	L 124-112	21	7	6	6	0	0	0	3-7	1-2	23.2
Mar 8	@TOR	L 122-92	20	6	7	2	0	0	0	2-6	0-1	17.4
Feb 27	SAC	L 130-121	29	10	9	0	0	2	4	5-6	0-0	22.8
Feb 25	@BKN	W 123-114	20	22	5	1	0	0	1	10-13	0-0	28.5
Feb 22	@IND	W 134-130	26	12	11	1	1	0	0	5-9	0-0	29.7
Feb 21	@MIN	L 122-111	24	15	13	0	0	1	1	5-9	1-2	32.6
Feb 13	@LAL	L 124-104	20	7	4	0	1	0	0	3-7	0-1	14.8
Feb 11	@PHX	L 120-111	24	9	8	2	0	0	1	4-4	0-0	20.6
Feb 7	@SA	L 138-125	24	16	12	2	1	4	0	6-14	1-1	48.4
Feb 4	NY	L 132-101	16	11	6	1	0	0	1	4-7	0-0	18.7
Feb 1	SAC	W 116-112	19	15	6	2	1	1	0	7-8	1-1	31.2
Jan 19	LAC	L 110-106	17	6	8	1	0	2	4	2-5	0-0	19.1
Jan 18	@DEN	L 121-115	20	14	6	2	1	1	1	5-6	0-0	29.2
Jan 17	@SAC	L 128-115	19	8	4	0	1	0	0	1-5	0-1	15.8
Jan 15	@LAC	L 119-105	27	15	11	2	0	0	1	7-10	0-1	30.2
Jan 12	@PHX	L 112-93	16	6	3	0	1	1	4	3-4	0-0	11.6
Jan 8	@PHI	L 131-110	16	9	9	1	0	1	1	4-10	1-2	23.3
Jan 7	ORL	W 120-112	17	12	3	0	2	1	2	2-6	0-0	22.6
Jan 4	MIN	L 141-115	14	6	3	0	0	0	3	3-3	0-0	6.6
Jan 3	BKN	W 119-99	17	12	8	1	1	0	0	5-5	0-0	26.1
Jan 1	@MIL	W 114-113	20	9	3	4	2	0	1	4-6	0-1	23.6
Dec 30	PHX	L 115-101	22	7	7	2	0	3	0	2-5	0-1	27.4
Dec 28	MEM	W 116-112	22	14	7	1	0	0	1	6-8	0-0	22.9
Dec 27	TOR	W 138-117	22	6	5	2	0	1	0	3-4	0-0	18
Dec 24	@CHA	L 126-109	21	15	3	1	0	1	0	5-7	0-0	23.1
Dec 21	@MEM	W 130-122	22	16	6	3	0	0	2	8-13	0-1	25.7
Dec 19	@SA	L 119-94	19	13	4	5	0	0	2	5-6	1-1	23.3
Dec 14	@IND	W 108-89	32	23	14	1	1	1	2	9-14	0-0	45.3
Dec 13	CLE	L 130-126	33	15	13	4	0	0	2	6-10	1-1	34.6
Dec 7	ATL	L 131-116	19	6	3	2	1	1	1	3-5	0-0	17.6
Dec 5	BOS	L 146-101	26	5	6	0	0	0	1	2-8	0-0	11.2
Dec 3	@PHI	L 121-102	26	13	8	1	0	5	1	3-6	1-2	38.1
Dec 2	MIL	W 129-126	29	22	8	1	0	0	0	11-16	0-1	33.1
Nov 20	@MIN	L 120-109	31	13	7	3	3	1	2	6-11	0-0	35.9
Nov 16	BKN	L 129-106	17	4	3	1	0	0	1	1-3	0-0	8.1
Nov 13	@HOU	L 135-112	12	9	5	1	0	0	0	4-4	0-0	16.5
Nov 11	@DET	L 137-135 OT	16	9	2	1	3	3	3	4-6	1-1	27.9
Nov 9	DAL	L 111-105	17	10	5	1	0	1	2	4-7	0-0	18.5
Nov 8	CLE	L 148-115	12	2	7	0	0	0	0	0-4	0-0	10.4
Nov 6	@BOS	L 136-107	13	11	5	2	0	1	2	5-6	0-0	21
Nov 4	@NY	L 119-102	14	6	7	0	0	0	0	2-3	0-1	14.4
Nov 1	ORL	L 125-94	15	8	3	3	0	1	0	4-7	0-1	19.1
Oct 31	@OKC	L 127-108	16	8	3	2	0	0	1	3-4	1-1	13.6
Oct 28	PHI	L 139-134 OT	19	14	7	3	2	1	1	6-7	0-0	34.9
Oct 26	CHA	L 139-113	10	2	1	0	0	0	1	1-1	0-0	2.2
Oct 25	@DAL	W 117-107	15	10	4	1	0	0	0	4-6	1-2	16.3
Oct 23	@MIL	L 133-120	15	1	3	1	1	0	1	0-0	0-0	8.1

More on Bagley and the F board

Forwards rankings (2025-26 results)2025-26 full rankings 2026-27 draft projections

QIs Marvin Bagley III a good fantasy pick?

He's a depth option, not a priority pick: #173 overall, #62 at his position. Draft late or stream based on matchups.

QWhat round should Marvin Bagley III be drafted in?

His current ADP in ESPN drafts is 140 (roughly round 14 in a 10-team league). We rank him #174, so he is a value at that price.

QHow many fantasy points will Marvin Bagley III score in 2026-27?

We project 22.9 points per game across an expected 67 games — approximately 1534 points for the season. His typical game last season landed between 15.1 and 29.2 (middle 50% of results), and that puts him #174 in projected scoring.

QHow does Marvin Bagley III rank in category leagues?

Based on 2025-26 production, Marvin Bagley III finished #182 in 9-cat and #194 in 8-cat leagues by per-game z-score value, versus #173 in points formats. Low turnovers make him even more valuable when they count against you.

QHow consistent is Marvin Bagley III for fantasy?

He delivered at least 75% of his average in 68% of games, with a floor of 10.4 and a ceiling of 35.9 fantasy points. He boomed (125%+ of average) in 27% of games and busted (under half his average) in 13%.

Answers computed by HoopSplit from official box scores.